[Lekooks] Fwd: Omicron Update: Dec 4
Christine Kunert
ckunert2 at gmail.com
Sat Dec 4 11:05:35 CST 2021
Thank you for recognizing my sensitivity to social responsibility... :)
Chris
On Sat, Dec 4, 2021 at 11:00 AM Fran B. via Lekooks <lekooks at lekook.org>
wrote:
> Get your booster and mask up. I was recently in the Pewaukee Costco. I saw
> one other person wearing a mask. It was Chris Knuert! Wisconsin has a very
> high infection rate right now.
>
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Lekooks <lekooks-bounces at lekook.org> on behalf of philip smith
> via Lekooks <lekooks at lekook.org>
> *Sent:* Saturday, December 4, 2021 3:48 PM
> *To:* LCUUC Open Mic <lekooks at lekook.org>
> *Subject:* [Lekooks] Fwd: Omicron Update: Dec 4
>
> Great article summarizing the latest Omicron data from South Africa. Short
> summary, esp for those of us older folks- get your booster now!
> phil
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> From: *Mae* <c.maesmith at gmail.com>
> Date: Sat, Dec 4, 2021 at 9:10 AM
> Subject: Fwd: Omicron Update: Dec 4
> To: lynne smith sister <lynnethetwin at gmail.com>, Phil Smith <
> psmithw318 at gmail.com>, Jesse Myerson <jesse.a.myerson at gmail.com>
>
>
> FYI I’m subscribed to these updates from an epidemiologist who does a
> great job breaking down latest data — especially useful for quickly
> evolving omicron.
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> *From:* Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist <
> yourlocalepidemiologist at substack.com>
> *Date:* December 4, 2021 at 9:38:36 AM EST
> *To:* c.maesmith at gmail.com
> *Subject:* *Omicron Update: Dec 4*
> *Reply-To:* Katelyn Jetelina from Your Local Epidemiologist <
> reply+qrkmt&e5h8c&&4e04ce5b63bef2ca2e04248a030b712951c59794027669a3064c7555e7ea9ebc at mg1.substack.com
> >
>
>
> It’s hard to believe it’s been one week since Omicron broke the news.
> While we continue to wait on lab evidence, we’re getting a substantial
> amount of epidemiological data every day. Here’s an update since my last…
> 1. Reinfections are high against
> Omicron
> Omicron Update: Dec 4
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJx1ksFyozAMhp8m3MKAcQwcfNhNNi3bkjbbTCb0whhbJE6MTcE0hadfNzntYWcka8aypPH_iTMLR9ONtDW99b6P0o4tUA3XXoG10HlDD10pBUVRHAcoIp6gWITJIvFkX9YdQMOkorYbwGuHSknOrDT6VpGEKEy9Ew05YRylBCcpcFYTElciZDhJwgUKQ0bug9kgJGgOFD6hG40GT9GTtW0_i37M0NrZaIZOGc4UtFJAI40yR9lbvx-q3jJ-8blp3LPWuWkk74yeD61wX5wL4HM8i9bWXEDPohWMv0OO9uMBqUt2NmM-8ShfZdNGXiV_SCexTtv3ZUY2q-1isyuCzfnSZ406CXeX74rpZVWMznG-vEp22Eyuh-SPe_m8y3C-y75e3rI-05uwkBnJ9M9PHm0tb_anIvrTVgjLeuuXfHr6eNDzt-Fcv46H7vnXx848PS7xpW3lap3LGr_3yTktXjNPUhQ4pVCAQxzFCPvIjwkGkVZ1BREECa58LVutkFIzHDRH9I8mXke53zDoG2lPLn_8RnZLOGKli82gpR1L0KxSIO4w7X0nbnjLI2jonJCiZJaGJEoISkgSJGl8Z-doY5wuCCap5yYL46o0_Q-vv5ur1xw&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593079197%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=grhymJ%2BUUL03pR99OC5BsSAf%2BMNlYebOQntaQRJgxP4%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
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> Katelyn Jetelina
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxNUMtuwyAQ_JpwqwVrjPGBQy_9DYvH4tBgsAC38t-XJJdKq31oNJqdsbrhlsuljlwbeba1XQeqhL81YmtYyFmxrMEpGOeZwiiIU9wxOUkS6uoL4q5DVK2cSI7TxGB1Czm9GJIBW8hdCZTMc0DjPBfGO-2lnywTZmYAkzRvYX26gMmiwh8sV05Iorq3dtTb-HmDr171NLVp-xhs3vt5lOxDxL7BDDBTCh-P7ide6eMb-wxJk6CAAmNAOePjDHyAYRYc3WK8wRGp5GZI4UgRYrxxum8w_FchRdlh11j30O4d355mX0D3uva5nym0a8WkTUT3jqG903wFs26YsPSv3KqbYmKUAqSQVC7z23XPifNlElwspCu73FlJXfksMVsd8QgO95Bj3kJtfyMpkrM&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593089155%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=C755RzCjrJKHEAINQJ1NNpjwEclcGbp4mYuPkju0RZY%3D&reserved=0>
> Dec 4
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> Comment]
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> Share]
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>
> It’s hard to believe it’s been one week since Omicron broke the news.
> While we continue to wait on lab evidence, we’re getting a substantial
> amount of epidemiological data every day. Here’s an update since my last
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJx1kLuu4yAQhp8mdLEMJoALitPsa1gYxg5aboJhj_z2hyTbbLHSXIq5_p81CGeuly65IXmFDa8COsF3C4AIlfQGdfNOs0XKmS2COM0dVQ9FfNuOChCNDxprB1L6Hrw16HN6TyjK6Eqe-uDHfJhDSrPAA2bFrVTUGhBgBaxcfg6b7jwkCxr-QL1yAhL0E7G02_J1Y7-GXbnXkK0JULyD6HPIp284tb43NPb3ZHMcbWV4jt7WnO69uCHx7sDeGfGazYxSNnPKF8n4xCYpOLh1P3ZYXo_tU_IlBRbCjc_xZP-sJlXbKRpo0eNz1M-X8ndhCN9Gjj15vDZIZg_gPkzwg_ZNaTshQR3_uM2gpmJRgimhZrX-RTCgcb4-BBcrGZddHlNJ_0f2D-b3mU4&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593109067%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=JekpPe76oBcnhv4QThhwXxniNwnQPphFVbfN%2FMrhBpg%3D&reserved=0>
> …
>
> *1. Reinfections are high against Omicron*
>
> We got our first piece of solid scientific evidence yesterday (here
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlkM2OrCAQhZ-mWRIoEXHBYjbzGgahtMkgGMD2-vYX26RSdVI_OanPmoprypfeU6nkTlO9dtQRzxKwVszkKJgn7zR0w8Cgk8Rp4bjqFfFlWjLiZnzQNR9I9mMO3prqU_xeKA58JG9tpBVSLeA6YND34zhYKZd-VmDMgHZ8jM3hPEaLGj-YrxSRBP2udS-v7ucFvy3O86QbuvzPf2jKa-vYFCvG2hRnlHPGm2oevOk7gIOUTKoP0OUIge5uIV7fCxyY4KIbQFCggxToxnmZsUOmxEyj32OAEF6CbSvQcsylGvtHbdpI1pZuBsvm67vN1_v976B9P7W6HdHXa8Jo5oDuAVMfvl9U04oRc-PuJlM1l52SoKRiahweDo2cEGMvhRxJc3apXUV9pSOHZE3A3TvcfApp9aX-B6HglKA&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593119026%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=9xxkL5KVxNjAljFvsyImvWRXETbbtUjProYhi4cH%2BBA%3D&reserved=0>).
> A group of South African scientists leveraged a national dataset of all
> positive COVID19 tests over time. This dataset includes data regardless of
> the reason for testing or type of test (PCR or antigen). Using this
> dataset, they assessed the reinfection rate in South Africa from March 2020
> to November 27 2021.
>
> The key findings of their analysis are in Panels A and C in the figure
> below. Both graphs are infections plotted over time. Panel A is *primary *infections,
> so someone who never had a positive test ever before. Panel C is *re*infections,
> so someone who had a positive test (at least 90 days) before. The colored
> background corresponds to different waves. This is what we see:
>
> -
>
> Purple was South Africa’s first COVID19 wave. This was all primary
> infections, as reinfections were impossible at this stage.
> -
>
> During the Pink and Orange wave, primary infections and reinfections
> largely reflected each other. They had a similar pattern but at different
> magnitudes.
> -
>
> Then you get to Omicron at the tail end of these graphs. While primary
> infections are increasing, reinfections have substantially more exponential
> growth. In fact, that blue line is almost as high as the previous Delta
> wave.
>
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUk2P3CAM_TXJpUoEBAgcOGy36rU_IeLDk6FLIAtkp9NfXyY5VUL2ky37PWxbXWFN-an2VGr_Mkt97qAiPEqAWiH3R4G8eKfINM-ITLx3ijosmOh9WW4ZYNM-qJoP6PfDBG919SmeFQITLPu7wkgCM0TOs0OYWU64tAKwdgRJIbW8iPXhPEQLCr4gP1OEPqh7rXvppreO_GzPujiWw5Sq7cdo09ZCftMrNH-Dau_NP5aOfU_mN9j67dfpOvajI-92CX7ztaFbI6qpgc8LTG9rSu6VCMue05qhFP8FLV4qwN56XiIIe8lgLyHNmMN-QMvnARAzxgo6GK2ngU4zDJJhMWhnJmJgnqWgY5lGvem_KepHuZS3Hte4Tnh-o5wQG-MIRWQAx_hAEaeDFJMZNDjsJCMYz3KZOf4jCR73uPZeEdSiBFHc2AkdyThzCk6am4EJkKBmjH6PgYTQUbSt5L8h9lnZcdNQ2njuLb--9nkmmr6l-e2Ivj4XiNoEcNem63Uw5-6XFSLkdkhu0VVhPglOBBdIyPlabDsFSiXjlMu-MbvUqqJ6piOHZHWA3TvYfApp9aX-AxIz1vs&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593119026%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=NKhnVvlGzl3YBnM4irFCm%2FY%2FByDjeRwHKJL%2FE03e%2F64%3D&reserved=0> Pulliam
> et al., Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence
> of the Omicron variant in South Africa. Preprint here
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlkM2OrCAQhZ-mWRIoEXHBYjbzGgahtMkgGMD2-vYX26RSdVI_OanPmoprypfeU6nkTlO9dtQRzxKwVszkKJgn7zR0w8Cgk8Rp4bjqFfFlWjLiZnzQNR9I9mMO3prqU_xeKA58JG9tpBVSLeA6YND34zhYKZd-VmDMgHZ8jM3hPEaLGj-YrxSRBP2udS-v7ucFvy3O86QbuvzPf2jKa-vYFCvG2hRnlHPGm2oevOk7gIOUTKoP0OUIge5uIV7fCxyY4KIbQFCggxToxnmZsUOmxEyj32OAEF6CbSvQcsylGvtHbdpI1pZuBsvm67vN1_v976B9P7W6HdHXa8Jo5oDuAVMfvl9U04oRc-PuJlM1l52SoKRiahweDo2cEGMvhRxJc3apXUV9pSOHZE3A3TvcfApp9aX-B6HglKA&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593128981%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=Aqh3Ap2r4WfFrXK0W%2FjlehNmrhPxd2Vls3aFAQr3XCw%3D&reserved=0>.
>
>
> This is the first evidence to show us that the rate of reinfection with
> Omicron is high—3 times higher than Delta. In other words,
> infection-induced immunity is not doing a great job at stopping Omicron.
>
> We now know this is the preliminary evidence WHO based their recommendation
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlkEuOrDAMRVdTmYFICCEMMujJ2wbKx0VFnQ9KzEPsvkMhWb6yriz7HqsRtlwuteeK5G4rXjuoBGcNgAiFHBXK6p1i4zwPbBTEKe6onCTxdX0XgKh9UFgOIPthgrcafU7fDUkZXchHWWsWOw96omIcpzc4rR1lUtPJGjdb8RzWh_OQLCj4D-XKCUhQH8S9vsafF_vX6jzP_vzk3ids0_1jE48QmzDZUdqxgdHu2F2L1eXU5ehtyYl4dRuUDZzycWa8Z_0sOLjFvA2MMEhu-uT3FFgILz7EjfX1MBW1_e1tjqQo20cNNXr8NH-7I3-NlnhtGo_k8VohaRPAPTDwYfrFs26QoLSn3KpRNQpSMCnkIJf5yd5ocb5MgouFtMsut62krnyUkK0OsHsH0eeQN1_xD_b1lAg&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593128981%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=f6xQraOXscUmKBHZiI97TNFEobaZfcHRnw5BUB7W%2F3Y%3D&reserved=0>on
> earlier this week: *People who have previously had COVID-19 could become
> reinfected more easily with Omicron*. This is also another example of
> South Africa’s incredibly swift work at finding early signals so the rest
> of the world can prepare.
>
> *2. South Africa State of Affairs *
>
> South Africa is having explosive spread. Yesterday they had 16,055
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxFUcuOhCAQ_JrhplFAxQOHvexvGB49TmcRDOC4ztcvo5vdhECoqk51VxuVYQ7xkGtImbyvKR8rSA97cpAzRLIliBNaSdkwNJT1xEpuW9EJgmm6R4BFoZM5bkDWTTs0KmPwZ4VoaTuShzRgBRs6To0WXI_irpVmbOhNN9yBdsNlrDaL4A1IeEI8ggfi5CPnNd3Yx41-lrPve-3R2FqZ-qUKYDGBSpAqVb0q9Ba-_8HrX5nwRFu1YyHSFp-AzqliUkVYQ8ypwP5sWLk_aWXLRMevoggIStrQtqUNbzkbKK9pPfQc7KjvGhg0ZajS1-odde7Gm2Wmddp0ysp81SYsJEpTLwrSgvlR-Pmd2EmUwKbyLpvHfEzglXZgryzztZIz3WkGD7Gsyk4qy7ZnoqeiF40Yf6MrYXM-dj3vR1KcbShVXh5hiy4Y5WBFCwsGF2ZM-Qdfl6u3&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593138939%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=i5dGVH3NcvMIyV0NLkEdCtY4m1JHmt0ukVef5WPdXaw%3D&reserved=0>
> new cases in one day. Using Delta’s doubling rate, we hypothesized
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlUMuOhSAM_ZrLbgwizwWL2cxvGB7VSwbBAI7x7wevSdOmbdrzcKbBmsul91wbutPcrh10grNGaA0KOiqUOXhNJiEwmTjymvpRMolCnZcCsJkQdSsHoP2wMTjTQk6fCzmSUaG3XrCQGMTiLGUYK-bsxBT3njlBzMLgATaHD5AcaPiDcuUEKOp3a3t9Td8v8tPjPM_BWje4vPXu5ngPc4n-yyylI38xRfkkhUJBE0zGkWA60kkQOpBBcApe2cXCBFhSO6Swp0hifFG8rWSoh63NuN_7PSraDZuBuoX27vv1FvlZdI1zr9uRQrtmSMZG8I_89rj4MWReIUHp7vrZND12UpxILrFU4lHb_aFUMU65Qh3Z536V9JWPErMzEfbgYQs55jXU9g-IhY7h&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593138939%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=bHFOIrqwktqTiweqfBLggscbg75Gpe7J7o6tdnVYYHE%3D&reserved=0>South
> Africa would break 10,000 daily cases by next week. Omicron has far
> outpaced this. The test positivity rate in South Africa is 24%, which is
> bad as Omicron is spreading faster than we can detect it.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuO3SAM_ZpkUyUKrwALFtNW3fYTIh5OLh0CKZCZ3n59ucmqErKPbNnnYNvqClvKT3WkUvuXWerzABXhswSoFXJ_FsiLdwoTzidM5t4p6pBgovdlWTPArn1QNZ_QH6cJ3urqU7wqBMJI9g_lmOESOzCr5JiLWbp15gJRx4VmlNCbWJ_OQ7Sg4APyM0Xog3rUepSOvHX4R3vWxbGcplRt30eb9hbyu96g-RWqfTT_uXTsazK_wNYvPy_Xse8d_maX4HdfG1obUU0N_L4BedtScq9EWI6ctgyl-A9o8VIBjtbzFoHZSwZ7CWnGnPYdWj4PMDFjrKCD0ZoMlHAYJENi0M4QbIBzKehYyKh3_TdF_Vlu5a3HPa4LXt8oF5SgkeMzHZBmbKBWwiAInwdtVyIcATmvchFo-sMmOh5x673CE0YITxQ1dkxHPLZycNKsBghMgpox-iMGHEJHp33D_w2xz8qOu4bSxvNo-e21zyvR9C3N72f09blA1CaAuzdd74O5dr9sECG3Q3KLrgrNRMxYzGISkt-LbadAqWQznWXfmF1qVVE905lDsjrA4R3sPoW0-VL_AR5I170&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593148897%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=wzgYQeF9Sy1hoodcP2UuaGaa9RQG%2BKtT5XmLTpLTyFA%3D&reserved=0> (NCID
> -Source Here
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxFUcuOhCAQ_JrhplFAxQOHvexvGB49TmcRDOC4ztcvo5vdhECoqk51VxuVYQ7xkGtImbyvKR8rSA97cpAzRLIliBNaSdkwNJT1xEpuW9EJgmm6R4BFoZM5bkDWTTs0KmPwZ4VoaTuShzRgBRs6To0WXI_irpVmbOhNN9yBdsNlrDaL4A1IeEI8ggfi5CPnNd3Yx41-lrPve-3R2FqZ-qUKYDGBSpAqVb0q9Ba-_8HrX5nwRFu1YyHSFp-AzqliUkVYQ8ypwP5sWLk_aWXLRMevoggIStrQtqUNbzkbKK9pPfQc7KjvGhg0ZajS1-odde7Gm2Wmddp0ysp81SYsJEpTLwrSgvlR-Pmd2EmUwKbyLpvHfEzglXZgryzztZIz3WkGD7Gsyk4qy7ZnoqeiF40Yf6MrYXM-dj3vR1KcbShVXh5hiy4Y5WBFCwsGF2ZM-Qdfl6u3&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593148897%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=PI5ASNozN7k5rX7XChonO29HM2TMtyozXqvdPw7%2FoiI%3D&reserved=0>
> )
>
> If we zoom into South Africa’s epicenter—Gauteng—case acceleration for
> this new wave (black line) is just unbelievable. The spread is near
> vertical compared to other waves.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuunDAM_ZphU4FCHpAssri3Vbf9BJSHYXJvSCgJdzr9-npgVSmyj2z5-MS2MxWWvD_1lkttXmaqzw10gkeJUCvszVFgn4LXlI0joWxovOa-l0I2oUzzDrCaEHXdD2i2w8bgTA05nRWyp71q7loIMVgCAhwZDVFiVLOfjXCE8N76QVyNzeEDJAcavmB_5gRN1Pdat3Jjbzf6E5_zqSuHLdW4z87lFUNhNQugn6G6O_rHdBPv2X6Aq99-ne4mftzodzfFsIaKaMZGNSP4fQH2tuTsX4k4bXtediglfAHGSwXYkPMSQcVLhngJQWMP9wmY31sgwloneWuNYS1nI7RK9LI13jJqYRyV5F1hnVnN35zMo1zKkeMa1wnPb5QTKtUDYUglrUI-SngrOUBLCDVg7MBnBRNG5Z9esKH72GBpgqaE9j1GexRAeUe7ceDglZ0tMCCS2y6FLUUa442TdaH_zbHZtetWAwUndMf88lrpmUCJE_r1SKE-J0jGRvDXsut1M-f6pwUS7HhLfjJV9wOTA5WDJFKN127xGjhXYuCDarCzz1iV9DMfe8zORNiChzXkmJdQ6j-UVNhy&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593158849%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=MRNxKlEtkn8V6X%2BvRYgEntX0yKQw%2FwM1ldosfZD%2BHIE%3D&reserved=0> Twitter:
> Ridhwaan Sulliman
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlkMGOhCAMhp9mOBpARDxw2Mu8hkHoOM0iGKg78e0Xx6Rp0zTt3-_3jmDN5bR7rsSuNNO5g03wqRGIoLCjQpkxWNmPI5e9ZsGqIMxgGNb5VQA2h9FSOYDtxxLRO8KcvhtGSDGxt1XQe5g4n7waHAjNnXzJwWslBQevzS3sjoCQPFj4g3LmBCzaN9FeH_3PQz5b0Aevlzqft9YVDII-AFQZWsmlEJIrofpRqk52o1YQpuW1QA_cqKVLuKcoY3wovq2yq8dSyfnf6xgr1nebg7ohvdt8vZC-g0Y0t7odCemcIbklQrhh6fbsiz-vkKA0L8PsyArdGy2NNtxM483W3FBqGrTSE2vKIbetZM98lJi9i7BjgA1zzCtW-gdu04nd&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593158849%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=dZyFV6rcNSYz0fyNeH4jE6ViKFTMUtfw%2BO0q%2FksLFiY%3D&reserved=0>
>
> Hospitalizations in South Africa have started to slowly rise. Because
> hospital trends lag case trends by 3-4 weeks, we still don’t know if, and
> how, Omicron impacts severe disease and death. We are at the mercy of time.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuOnTAM_RrYVCDyIIRFFtNW3fYTUB6Gm05IaBJmevv19YVVpcg-smX7xMdWV9hSfqojldq-zFKfB6gInyVArZDbs0BevFOUTdNAmWid4o7IUba-LGsG2LUPquYT2uM0wVtdfYpXhSSUzO1DESOMhFFSwQY6ETrIWcA6cmr5QIy292B9Og_RgoIPyM8UoQ3qUetRGvbW0B_4rIt9OU2p2r73Nu0Y8rveAP0K1T7Qfy7N-DWZX2Drl5-Xa8bvDf1ml-B3XxGtOKgmBL9vwN62lNwrEZYjpy1DKf4DMF4qwIE9bxJ0fNEYX0TQmNO-A-ZzB8NojJW8M1qzjrMJunkkstPOMGpgmmbJ-8J6veu_KerPcjPHHve6Lnh9o1yQzXoyYE1nRw4dF052Utq102yWs9VMODIvdODyD-Fc9EfcWq_oQAnulROcT3lP-0lwcLNZDTAYJDd99EcMNISGD_tG_1tjm5Xtdw0FF_TA_PZS9EogwwX9fkZfnwtEbQK4W-t6n8yl_rJBhIyn5BZdFRFMCiqFRJmnW1o8Bs7nUXAxtzjZJayK6pnOHJLVAQ7vYPcppM2X-g8e_dgl&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593168809%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=dYLz07KeGYbI%2BgL8fD2o%2F5l6bA5YR6os1BFGsvzUxlg%3D&reserved=0>
>
> We got a little peak into these hospitalizations during a brief
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlkMuOhCAQRb-mWRooEWXBYjaT-YbZGB7VNhkEA9jGvx9ak0pVpR65ucfqikvKp9pSqeST5npuqCIeJWCtmMleMM_eKejHkUIviFPcsWmYiC_zMyOu2gdV845k203wVlef4vUxMWCSvJTkkmpumdQDoACQDuUgjeN2kJxrewvr3XmMFhW-MZ8pIgnqVetWHv3XA75bHMfRPbVFk9JfZ9PaRj-oQ339fg7e3mEqrQHaj4LKps2EENAmxCugwBhQzng_Au-gGwVHJ83TYI904qaLfosBQnhwui7Qld2Uqu0lRLKy3aqxrL6-2n75eL4WzfLc6rpHX88ZozYB3U2j3lAvPvOCEXOD7WZdFRP9JGASE53keJtvuDiXg-BCkqbsUvuK6kx7DsnqgFszt_oU0uJL_QdRhpID&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593168809%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=4YgGjBwMRm5n2Wy7C%2F3tGI9E2QfLBHXmNGiJKMaSYEo%3D&reserved=0>
> yesterday hosted by the National Department of Health (South Africa). South
> Africa is actively investigating the vaccination status of patients in
> hospitals. Unfortunately there is still lot of “unknown” data, but the data
> they do have shows that among 1,351 hospitalized 23% patients are
> unvaccinated and 2% of patients vaccinated. Until we can get more complete
> data, I wouldn’t come to sweeping conclusions with this. But it’s welcoming
> news that the vaccinated aren’t piling up at the hospital.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuOnTAM_RrYVCDIg4RFFtNW3fYTUB6Gm05IaBJmevv19YVVpcjnyJbtE9tWV9hSfqojldq-zFKfB6gInyVArZDbs0BevFOECjEQOrVOMTdKLltfljUD7NoHVfMJ7XGa4K2uPsUrQ45knNuHEhKkhWmgIEZKRkktIWK1IPQwyFXTu7E-nYdoQcEH5GeK0Ab1qPUoDX1ryA981sW-nKZUbd97m3Z0-V1vgLhCtQ_Ez6XhX5P5BbZ--XlBw7835Jtdgt99RbZio5qQ_L4JfdtScq9AWI6ctgyl-A9Af6kAB9a8RRD-ksFfQtCY074DxnMHAzfGStYZrWnHqIBu5qPstDOUGBBilqwvtNe7_pui_iy3cqxxj-ui1zfKRYcVx0L51HGjScckVtbMmY46vs6ToNKZaUH4Q-XYH3FrvSIDGUcysBG7E9aTXkwM3GxWAxQGyUwf_REDCaFhw76R_4bYZmX7XUPB8Twwvr32eQVQ34K4n9HX5wJRmwDu3nS9D-ba_bJBhIyH5BZd1ThRORE5yUHO4l4sngJjM5_YNLfY2SXMiuqZzhyS1QEO72D3KaTNl_oP9PLXjw&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593178761%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=%2BycQaqN%2BoshAgxUmFZN7hlrE%2FfNTt2wLw3ODTPEXGQ0%3D&reserved=0> National
> Department of Health (South Africa)
>
> During the briefing, South Africa also presented the age distribution of
> hospitalized patients. It’s apparent that younger people are going to the
> hospital at a higher rate during this Omicron wave (orange bars below)
> compared to the Delta wave (blue bars below). This pattern is specifically
> apparent with kids less than 5 years old.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuunDAM_RrYVKCQB4RFFve26rafgPLwMLk3JDQJdzr9-npgVSmyj2zZ58S21RXWlJ9qT6W2L7PU5w4qwqMEqBVyexTIi3eKsmkilI2tU9wNUsjWl-WWATbtg6r5gHY_TPBWV5_iWSEHOsztXVkwkzSESD1bLh0IydCOXIz6ZgQnF7E-nIdoQcEX5GeK0AZ1r3UvDXtr6E981sW-HKZUbT97mzYM-U2vgP4G1d7RP5ZGvCfzAbZ--3W6Rvxo6He7BL_5iuiGRDUh-H0B9ram5F6JsOw5rRlK8V-A8VIBdux5iaDiJUO8hKAxh_0EzOcOiDDGSt4ZrVnH2QTdLAbZaWcYNTBNs-R9Yb3e9N8U9aNcyrHHNa4Tnt8oJ4SJCzbNpuOjJB3XDPtRCx1YQgRILqXmyzyOfwRn_ccOa-sVJXQYKOED0lPe034aObjZ3AwwIJKbPvo9BhpCw8m20v-m2GZl-01DwfncMb--FnomUOCCfjuir88FojYB3LXqel3MufxlhQgZL8ktuqphZHKkEsXLebo2i7fA-SxGPs4tMruEVVE905FDsjrA7h1sPoW0-lL_AZzV2DY&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593178761%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=Mn2HMO7BjzypPntoqpo6g9CPtKmwl4x5fCmnWZAKoXs%3D&reserved=0> National
> Department of Health (South Africa)
>
> South Africa is actively investigating *why*. I think there are a few
> things that could be explaining this:
>
> 1.
>
> Kids aren’t vaccinated and may be the last group for the virus to
> reach. Parents may have avoided infection by altering behaviors until now.
> 2.
>
> Adults around these kids aren’t vaccinated. Infection-induced immunity
> doesn’t protect well against Omicron while it largely did before. So
> parents could be bringing the virus home and infecting kids.
> 3.
>
> Because so little is known about Omicron, kids may be hospitalized out
> of precaution at a higher rate than before.
> 4.
>
> Omicron induces more severe disease for kids than previous variants.
> 5.
>
> A combination of all of the above.
>
> My guess is a combination of #1-3. Keep in mind what happens in one
> country doesn’t always happen in others. Landscapes between countries are
> very different: vaccination rates, behaviors, environment, genetics, and
> unknown unknowns. We need to carefully track epidemiological data by age to
> see if this is a generalizable signal. As a parent, I don’t really want to
> wait to find out though.
>
> *3. United States State of Affairs*
>
> This virus is well on its way as it has reached more than 11 states. Some
> cases have no ties to South Africa travel indicating (and confirming) that
> Omicron is spreading throughout our communities. The key question we have
> in the States is: *Does Omicron outcompete Delta?* We need more data to
> see whether this is happening.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuOnTAM_RrYVCDIm0UW01bd9hOiPAw3nZDQJMz09uubC6tKkX1kyz4ntq2usKX8lEcqtX8ZVZ8HyAifJUCtkPuzQFbeSYQ5nxBmvZPEzYKK3he1ZoBd-yBrPqE_ThO81dWneFWIGc1L_5B40cwZxAxDsCIhOMWa8xms1hOlzt3E-nQeogUJH5CfKUIf5KPWo3T4rUM_2rMujuU0pWr7Ptq0t5Df9QbNr1Dto_lP1dGvyfwCW7_8vFxHv3fom1XB7742tDaimhr4fQP8tqXkXomgjpy2DKX4D2jxUgGO1vMWgehLBn0Jacac9h1aPg8wUWOsIIPRGg8EcxgWOotBO4ORAc4XQcaCR73rvynqz3Irbz3ucV3w-ka5IFiqiWV2WLCmA2GABt1mNQiD8GrNMvGVq4WRPwyL8Yhb7yWa0DyjicyNHZERjZwRcItZDWCYBDFj9EcMKISOTPuG_htin6Uddw2ljefR8ttrn1ei6VPN72f09akgahPA3Zuu98Fcu1cbRMjtkJzSVc5NFkOCiUks_F5sOwVCFsoIW_rG7FKrivKZzhyS1QEO72D3KaTNl_oPUd7YhQ&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593188716%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=OhU6YCJv2QoQ2PRnHtXBoq7Yo0S1VxtTrywvUdlgHLc%3D&reserved=0>
> (NYT
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlkE2OwyAMhU9Tdo2AUJIsWMxmrhERcBJr-InAaZXbD20lhAH78Z4-Zwm2XC5z5Ersvc10HWASvGoAIijsrFBm9Eb2w8Blr5k3yovxMTKs81oAosVgqJzAjnMJ6CxhTh_FKKSY2G4ePYATg-Va8kWvsFohpnVpXc3XQfZfY3t6hOTAwBPKlROwYHaio976n5v8bev1enXpIoxQO5dje8HUIlpH-IR2k1yKVnawgfZ2cLnkZJ9Yznp_2oI20Z3a-B-UbqcYGJq3REiuhOoHqTrZDVqBn5Z1gR74qJYu4ZGCDOGmeNxkV8-lUvviHYAV47pooUZsfopvbxSfRiMxtxrPhHTNkOwSwH8h0Zf1B9u8QWr5CfxsyQjdj1qOeuTjNHyZNIpKTQ-t9MSas89NlcyVzxKyswEO9BAxh7xhpX_BPp4N&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593188716%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=bZNXX9fuQ79xP3SQuk3Zj5QBbxsWpWRp2OoclksuF%2Bc%3D&reserved=0>
> )
>
> Nonetheless, we’re seeing case growth across the nation with 94,926
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlUEuOrDAMPE1nNwhCCGGRxWzeNVBIDG1NPigxjbj9C41k2bLLVrnKGoIt5UvvqRC700zXDjrCWTwQQWZHgTyj07wfx5b3kjktXKcGxbDMawYIBr2mfADbj8WjNYQpfi9Ux7uJvbUAO4CTgxsEGKhTwzmoFVYjzdrK4SE2h0OIFjR8IF8pAvP6TbSXV__74v9qnOfZxIswQGlsCnWCsb5oLOEHasdb3tVylJps-qD7sabU3TcFz1DfcMdb0Yl-5KLhzSgFuGlZF-ihVWJpIu7Rc-9fog0bb8qxFDL27yZjWdsmGCgB6V3x7Zb9BarqudZwRKRrhmgWD-4xhB5fvxbNG8T6K4GbDelO9kpyJVWrpvHRXx0TYhqkkBOrzC7Vq6ivdGSfrPGwo4OAyacNC_0HkvOWrw&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593198675%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=J8oRCFfsnFb3yxEqLJM2T9B7ZV3VujFswmo8AWfKVCg%3D&reserved=0>
> new cases per day. Hot spots are clustered in the Northern states who were
> largely untouched by Delta during the summer, but all geographic areas in
> the United States are increasing.
>
> Delta and the Thanksgiving holiday are largely driving spread right now.
> Omicron may be adding a little fuel, but certainly not a main factor yet.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuOnTAM_RrYVKCQB4RFFtNW3fYTUB6Gm05IaBJmevv19YVVpcg-shWf44fVFbaUn-pIpbYvs9TnASrCZwlQK-T2LJAX7xRl00QoG1unuBukkK0vy5oBdu2DqvmE9jhN8FZXn-L1Qw50mNuH4mBA0pU7Nq7TalZnmLRC6NUNk6MDv4n16TxECwo-ID9ThDaoR61HadhbQ3_gsy725TSlavve27RjyO96A_QrVPtA_7k04msyv8DWLz8v14jvDf1ml-B3XxGtSFQTgt83YG9bSu6VCMuR05ahFP8BGC8V4MCatwgqXjLESwgac9p3wHzugAhjrOSd0Zp1nE3QzWKQncYuqYFpmiXvC-v1rv-mqD_LrRxr3OO64NVGuaAgTo6E8I5ISzo-C9rNzvGOGsokHwFg4stAZ_Jn5KQ_4tZ6RQkdBkr4gPSU97SfRg5uNqsBBkRy00d_xEBDaDjZN_rfFNusbL9rKDifB-a310KvBApc0O9n9PW5QNQmgLtXXe-LuZa_bBAh4yW5RVc1jEyOVI6SyHm6N4u3wLGRkY9zi8wu4a-onunMIVkd4PAOdp9C2nyp_wApV9ga&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593198675%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=n9jCSrVTVJGMzLdtP%2FDpTJnZq5MQWXyiUKpmICK%2BUqc%3D&reserved=0>
>
> Not nearly enough people are fully protected going into the Winter months.
> Only 59.7%
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJw1kN3OpCAMhq9mONMoMIgHHHwn322YAh2HLIKBOhvvfhnNJk2b_uVtHweEay6n2XMl9nULnTuahH9rRCIs7KhYluANF9M0cKGYN9KP-qlZqMurIG4QoqFyINsPG4MDCjldG3rk48zeRozCcnAT6KcEP00wD5MdnqiUQG3B3sJw-IDJocEPljMnZNG8ifb6ED8P_tvM5U_wvfOuX_Pnf955IOiogPuD5ZoTH3AupOuOunyTjjJB7MBvIXWl_XwXWDB84OPIBzlKMXHZ835SEv1sXxYFDlraPoU9RR7jQw7byvt62EpNq3d5Y8W4fgOsW6B3669fFFejkVha3I4U6FwwgY3ob0h0s76wLSsm_N7jFyAzKqEV10oPep5uJo2ilPNTSTWzpuxz20rmzEeJ2UHEPXjcQo55DZX-AR4Rnmc&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593208633%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=NYO32dqtjD0647AGxHibVEdnK%2BQbN2BE7w9g7CZrZCQ%3D&reserved=0>
> of the United States is fully vaccinated (which the CDC defines as * not*
> having a booster, which really needs to change). Only 22%
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJw1kN3OpCAMhq9mONMoMIgHHHwn322YAh2HLIKBOhvvfhnNJk2b_uVtHweEay6n2XMl9nULnTuahH9rRCIs7KhYluANF9M0cKGYN9KP-qlZqMurIG4QoqFyINsPG4MDCjldG3rk48zeRozCcnAT6KcEP00wD5MdnqiUQG3B3sJw-IDJocEPljMnZNG8ifb6ED8P_tvM5U_wvfOuX_Pnf955IOiogPuD5ZoTH3AupOuOunyTjjJB7MBvIXWl_XwXWDB84OPIBzlKMXHZ835SEv1sXxYFDlraPoU9RR7jQw7byvt62EpNq3d5Y8W4fgOsW6B3669fFFejkVha3I4U6FwwgY3ob0h0s76wLSsm_N7jFyAzKqEV10oPep5uJo2ilPNTSTWzpuxz20rmzEeJ2UHEPXjcQo55DZX-AR4Rnmc&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593208633%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=NYO32dqtjD0647AGxHibVEdnK%2BQbN2BE7w9g7CZrZCQ%3D&reserved=0>
> of 18+ are boosted and, even more concerning, only 46% of those aged 65+
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJw1kN3OpCAMhq9mONMoMIgHHHwn322YAh2HLIKBOhvvfhnNJk2b_uVtHweEay6n2XMl9nULnTuahH9rRCIs7KhYluANF9M0cKGYN9KP-qlZqMurIG4QoqFyINsPG4MDCjldG3rk48zeRozCcnAT6KcEP00wD5MdnqiUQG3B3sJw-IDJocEPljMnZNG8ifb6ED8P_tvM5U_wvfOuX_Pnf955IOiogPuD5ZoTH3AupOuOunyTjjJB7MBvIXWl_XwXWDB84OPIBzlKMXHZ835SEv1sXxYFDlraPoU9RR7jQw7byvt62EpNq3d5Y8W4fgOsW6B3669fFFejkVha3I4U6FwwgY3ob0h0s76wLSsm_N7jFyAzKqEV10oPep5uJo2ilPNTSTWzpuxz20rmzEeJ2UHEPXjcQo55DZX-AR4Rnmc&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593218586%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=2O3qUhluZ5U9l3WprksebksxT3F1qd2uTDtKtDCTxPI%3D&reserved=0>.
> I found the graph
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJwlkc2OrCAQhZ-m2WkAEXXBYjb3NQxCqWT4C-A1vv1UdyekKjmVQ518ZXSDI5VH5VQbeZe1PRlUhLt6aA0KuSqU1VnFh2mifJDEKmHZPM7E1XUvAEE7r1q5gORr887o5lL8OGbG2UJOBXqf2KYNhYlqThksHKycxnGXRggpvov1ZR1EAwr-Q3lSBOLV2Vqur-Hnxf_hu--7B5NiCq623qSA2lF0Pp3pLDTMgQKnnGFjHAsdsJzp7nKBrAvYbk-lQ7spKXYodDpAwcidjraDq6QMxKn3F4xTwcQwcdHzfpIC7LLtGwxAZ7H10eXoufcvQcPB-3pttWnz-85EijJ90FCDayfOjzefzwDxrNjDFV17Voh682C_5Nr3AB-W6wERCh7GrropJodZ8lnOdF6mLyhEK8QySiEXgpttQldUT7qKT0Z7yM5CcMmnAzH9AcWpo-w&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593218586%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=vEVPQHRSEo9KOYyX7OJGaM3IfIqzKrQLeiMitdKH2ps%3D&reserved=0>below
> useful in displaying poor booster coverage in the United States. If you
> know someone that’s 65+, call them right now and encourage them to get a
> booster if they don’t already have one. It’s not too late.
>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJxVUsuO3SAM_ZpkUyVKeLNgMW3VbT8h4uHk0iGQApnp7deXm6wqIfvIFj7HD6srbCk_1ZFK7V9mqc8DVITPEqBWyP1ZIC_eKYQ5nxBmvVPEzYKK3pdlzQC79kHVfEJ_nCZ4q6tP8fohZjTL_qEcZysHMEZrzlfDKJ7sLKVkBjHQbL6J9ek8RAsKPiA_U4Q-qEetR-nwW4d-tGddHMtpStX2fbRpbyG_6w2aX6HaR_OfS0e_JvMLbP3y83Id_d6hb3YJfve1obUR1dTA7xvgty0l90qE5chpy1CK_4AWLxXgaDVvEYi-ZNCXkGbMad-h5fMAEzXGCjK07vBAMIdB0lkM2hmMDHAuBRkLHvWu_6aoP8utvNW4x3XBq41yQTEZO7lpHYTjdCBCokFwjAYqMdhJoFU7WASRfyjF4xG33is0oXlGE5kbOyIjGjkj4KRZDWCYBDFj9EcMKISOTPuG_htin5Uddw2ljefR8ttrn1ei6Vua38_o63OBqE0Ad2-63gdz7X7ZIEJuh-QWXdXMsGBIMDEJye_FtlMgRFJGmOwbs0vtV1TPdOaQrA5weAe7TyFtvtR_UcXYNQ&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593228543%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=UlfaIrOPVxOy8ujgoLkr8WcJJk6U0uPcmxjDrYQHT0g%3D&reserved=0>
> (Economist)
>
> *Bottom Line*: Previous infections are largely not protective against
> Omicron. Omicron is in the United States and spreading quickly. Let’s take
> advantage of this warning from South Africa to mount a proactive (rather
> than reactive) response.
>
> Love, YLE
>
> P.S. I typically get many messages asking what I’m doing with my girls who
> are under 5. We haven’t changed our behaviors with Omicron news just yet.
> We are already boosted, wear masks inside, and avoid large indoor events.
> The girls are still going to child care (but all teachers are fully
> vaccinated and wear masks). We still have our plane tickets to CA for
> Christmas. But my husband and I got on the same page last night and both
> agreed that we need to closely watch how this unfolds in the coming weeks.
> This may mean cancelling Christmas plans with unvaccinated family members
> or cancelling plane tickets last minute. The name of the game is
> flexibility.
> ------------------------------
>
> *“Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE)” is written by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH
> PhD— an epidemiologist, biostatistician, professor, researcher, wife, and
> mom of two little girls. During the day she has a research lab and teaches
> graduate-level courses, but at night she writes this newsletter. Her main
> goal is to “translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that
> people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions, rather than
> decisions based in fear. This newsletter is free thanks to the generous
> support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, please
> subscribe here:*
>
> Subscribe now
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>
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Femail.mg2.substack.com%2Fc%2FeJx1UkuPmzAQ_jXhVgS2eR04tJtmRdSQptoNTS_I2AMxGEzBJCG_vibZHnqoZM_Invnm-TGqoVLDHPdq1NYicj33EHdwHSVoDYM1jTDkgscIB4GDsG_xmHA39EJLjHk5ALRUyFgPE1j9VEjBqBaqeyBCF7mRdY4J8ZCPUVgiQpnn05A7HqdRGeAoDDgKnonpxAV0DGK4wDCrDiwZn7XuxxX-vEIbc2Y1DVIxKqEXHFqhpKrEqO1xKkZNWWMz1Ro32gsjL64RS2CjHjV-GoCypbYV3mjVgNFrmLcuQ8f5J5JNUqt5d2d4t07uqbgK9hrd-Sbqf70kfro-eOnbyUnrZky6rTxlqUOzaDIYQXrUJMafZhvHvG9pvSNpnZhbXb-9bHsTUezF9sqzRO_q6rarv3qLP8NHseBZezyf8I--QESUB7s-sbRk4j4Gt_L93T1-V9Px4uw2NFOv7Lovmt-HL29esZfZYYX8Sbf5aMbCwHTzdw4f_y1wMbVLl0v7loiRg1wXOcQlOEDERnbgE-BRURaAwQlJYXei7ySSckWctkL_DNYaYma3FMZW6LOxV0vQh8GsPTe6nTqh5xw6WkjgT0boJ7EeBeQVdDAYwvGc6tj1ceij0A-dMPoggKEMIZHnEz-yTGauDKqL_7P0P_wu8C4&data=04%7C01%7C%7Ca87666ba6d75478af28008d9b73d9eab%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C637742297593238498%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000&sdata=cSQ5xMudubvuZXpa3hR829CidOuLIN%2BaRc%2B25PKFO6M%3D&reserved=0> [image:
> Comment]
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